Canadian Green House Gas Emissions
This post was written on the territories of the xʷməθkwəy̓əm (Musqueam), Skwxwú7mesh (Squamish), and sel̓íl̓witulh (Tsleil-waututh) Nations.
Every year Environment and Climate Change Canada releases a new inventory of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions by sector and province. It is an important cache of data which can show how well Canada is doing in terms of reaching its emission targets. These are all original graphs and, as of 2020, are the most up-to-date numbers available.
And here is the same data but differentiated by province.
The first thing to notice is that the 2008 dip comes almost exclusively from Ontario’s elimination of coal fired electricity generation. The extra dip in 1992 came from 4 generating units at Lakeview being taken out of service due to surplus energy. Coal plants were later closed in 2003, 2005, 2012, 2013, and 2014. However, it’s important to keep in mind that before the coal plants were closed, the plants would generate less energy in preparation, which explains the overall decline.
In some ways, eliminating coal is one of the easiest ways to drop emissions. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic Provinces, one can argue, have an easier time to drop emissions, while other provinces like BC and Quebec will have a harder time, since BC and Quebec already rely on hydro power. Every other emissions drop will be harder because coal produces so much emissions. In other words, since BC and Quebec can’t rely on ending coal energy to reduce their emissions, they will have to find other ways through structural and societal change.
I do have some hope for reductions. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick are planning to phase out coal by using small scale nuclear reactors, among other methods. I do not know whether nuclear is a good option, but at the very least, it should lead to a large reduction in emissions.
The next thing to notice is that Alberta’s emissions are huge compared to the other provinces. Alberta even beats Ontario in emissions production despite the lower population. This is because Alberta’s the Oil and Gas Sector emits a a huge portion of Canada’s overall emissions (especially the oil sands). Worryingly, Alberta’s Oil and Gas emissions continue to increase rather than decrease.
Finally, I also wanted to note the high transportation emissions from Ontario. I was in Waterloo in 2019 and I saw an ad encouraging people to fly to Toronto in order to “beat the traffic.” That ad disturbed me, not only because planes are a terrible source of GHG emissions, but because it demonstrates how bad congestion has gotten in Ontario.
Congestion and long distance commuting is a real issue in Ontario. According to Google Maps, the commute between Waterloo and Toronto could take between 1 hour and 2.5 hours by car. Some days, I expect, it could be worse due to accidents or increased traffic. I suspect a combination of electric cars, large scale public transit investment, and much better land use planning could make a difference, and if we want to reduce emissions, it is something we have to tackle.
Over all, Canada is in a terrible position to achieve its GHG emission targets. Our 2030 target is an unambitious 511 Mt, and we are projected to have 815 Mt (according to Canada’s Second Biennial Report), 673 Mt (according to Canada’s Fourth Biennial Report), or 588 Mt (under Addition Measures). Even under optimistic scenarios, Canada is going to miss its targets.
